PolyForecast

Iran Nuke before 2027?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Jan 1, 2027
  • 50 days left
Yes 3%
No 97%
24h change -0.7 pts
Volume
$1.6M
24h volume
$11.2K
Liquidity
$90.2K
Updated
Nov 11, 2026 · 15:35 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

No relevant updates found.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Geopolitics
  • Iran
  • Iran Nuclear Deal
  • Middle East
  • Nuclear
  • Politics
  • World

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.