NATO article 5 before 2027?
Yes
5%
No
95%
24h change
+0.1 pts
- Volume
- $298.1K
- 24h volume
- $15K
- Liquidity
- $47K
- Updated
- Nov 11, 2026 · 07:02 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.