PolyForecast

Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?

  • Politics
  • Resolved
  • Resolves Nov 4, 2026
  • Awaiting resolution
Yes 0%
No 100%
24h change -2.2 pts
Volume
$98.4K
24h volume
$7.7K
Liquidity
$22.1K
Updated
Nov 6, 2026 · 03:32 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

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About this market

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
  • Conditionals
  • Elections
  • Geopolitics
  • Iran
  • Midterm Combos
  • Midterms
  • Oil
  • Peace Deal
  • Politics
  • Senate
  • Strait of Hormuz
  • U.S. x Iran

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.